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The Australian Wine Industry
Changing Tastes - Looking Ahead 2011-2036
Thursday, 7th April, 2011  - David Farmer

At The Changing Taste of Wine 1984 to 2010 I summarised the consumer taste shifts over the last 26 years by comparing the top 25 bottle wines purchased in 1984 with 2010. I thought it might be interesting to project these trends into the future and discuss some other influences which have a chance of happening. I do this in the knowledge that future predictions have a dismal success rate, but have found exercises like this do crystallise a range of thoughts.

Before this is attempted let's set out what will not change, compressing thoughts to areas where shifts are possible. For thousands of years we have been drinking red and white wines. After the invention of distillation, fortified wines appeared, perhaps 500 years ago. Next, maybe 400 years ago the wine range expanded with sparkling wines. So over the next 25 years none of these categories will change radically and it would be a miracle if a new taste discovery of first order magnitude arrives.

It is the shifts within these four broad categories; reds, whites, fortified and sparkling and swings in the underlying sub-categories, such as sleeping varieties becoming fashionable that is the focus of this article.

Fortifieds - A Future?

To start with I'll stick my neck out and say that bulk fortifieds will not make a comeback. As well the very great fortifieds, such as fine dry sherries and rare muscats and ports will stay a niche and owners of these stocks need to pray that Asians show an interest. By any measure they represent the highest quality for the lowest price that exists in the wine world.

Imports or Local?

In the last 25 years Australian consumer interest in wine while maturing remains confined to a narrow range of varieties. For most of this time the nation's drinkers have been happy to drink the local product whether table, sparkling or fortified. The next 25 years may bring some startling changes in this assumption.

French Champagne has had a following since the gold-rush days and this popularity will continue. For the wealthy buyer the fascination with the best wines of Europe will also continue. The perception of imports changed with the embrace of New Zealand sauvignon blanc styles from 2000. Coles and Woolworths now sell over 3,500,000 cases of this style each year. This will continue to grow as it's not a taste that can be easily duplicated at the right price in Australia.

New Zealand may well double its share of the Australian market with a much wider range of cool climate varietals; in particular pinot noir, vibrant sweeter styles and sparkling wines. The consumer preference for crisp, light, fruity styles, which come from cool climate grapes, opens opportunities for Chile and Argentine as both can deliver similar styles at attractive price points.

Varietal Changes - How Far Can They Go?

The search for cooler climates and the different taste this delivers has played out. There are no new tastes to discover as all of the large number of climatic variations the Australian continent offers have now been tested.

Likewise will a major new variety come along and challenge for example, sauvignon blanc and chardonnay? It is possible but I will punt and say no. Recall that what distorted the 1984 listings was corrected by 2010.

Thus there is only one dimension left which is the acceptance of a wider range of varieties and this is likely. This will give breadth and width to the current offering which is really still based on the four varieties, sauvignon blanc, chardonnay, shiraz and cabernet. Thus I propose an evolutionary change, not a revolutionary one.

Varieties such as riesling and semillon championed by some commentators, particularly wine judges who display an unhealthy obsession with both, will remain niche varieties.

A Red to Rival Sauvignon Blanc?

The red wine market is fascinating in that while consumers show a preference for two varieties only a few brands sell in large quantities. It seems that cabernet and shiraz have become the de-facto brands rather than producers brands. The one question that may well be answered in the next 25 years is the rise of a red which can rival sauvignon blanc in popularity.

It may be a variety such as pinot noir or another, perhaps gamay (Beaujolais) or more likely a style of winemaking that is very fruit driven such as the modern grenache blends being made in the Barossa. The later are too expensive, though they suggest a way forward. I'm reminded of wines called Beaujolais and experiments like Cab-Mac which many years ago were popular.

I did not understand, until recently, the significance of the CSIRO cross-breeding program of the 1960-1970s. Within this program lies the nucleus of another direction which might produce the breakthrough variety.

So I will say several reds brands will force their way into the top 25 and they will be red savee's.

Sparkling Wines - Where Now?

Italy is such a happy wine making country taking as much pride in making Asti Spumante, Prosecco, Lambrusco as they do a Barolo. Australia is not a happy wine making country with far too much of the post 1950 table wine boom being wasted by playing French catch up with trying to make facsimiles of French styles.

After a promising start led by Barossa Pearl we backed ourselves into the corner called ‘Champagne' and a miserable lot of uninteresting wines poured forth. The result is our sensible youth would rather drink watermelon flavoured sparkling vodka.

No category is crying out more for a complete makeover than sparkling wines.

There are glimmers of hope and the next 25 years will usher in a revolution in this area with old models discarded and waves of bright, fresh, fruity wines, many with added flavours appearing.

Surely There Must Be More?

There is more as the big advances will be elsewhere such as packaging innovations, genetic engineering to alter flavours both in grapes and in the yeasts used in fermentation and other innovations which are outside the scope of this article.

Will reds or whites win the most drinkers? I will place my bets on whites in the same way that vodka wins friends in the spirit category. Brown spirits and red wines are more interesting but also challenging and they look intoxicating.

In summary I did conclude that looking back 25 years showed that more things stayed the same than changed. Looking forward I suggest the same apart from the tweaking discussed, and the big consumer battle will be fought on packaging not changing wine tastes.

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Bridget Jones Enters the Wine Marketing Lexicon

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Coming to a Bar Near You?

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Tuesday, 24th August, 2004



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