What Goes Up Must...
Tuesday, 7th March, 2006
- Richard Farmer
 | The five year outlook as forecast by ABARE is for prices for Australian wine grapes to fall again for the current 2005-06 vintage, in response to lower export prices and high wine stock levels. ABARE expects a white wine indicator price of $522 per tonne, down from $555 in 2004-05. For red grapes, the Australian indicator price is forecast to fall 5 per cent to $413 per tonne. For white wine grapes the real price is forecast to continue falling to 2010-11. Growth in demand and tighter supplies for red wine grapes are expected to result in an rise in the real price before the end of the outlook period. After dipping to a low of $399 per tonne in 2006-07, the price for red wine grapes is forecast to rise to over $460 per tonne by 2010-11. |
The graph in the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) paper to this year’s economic outlook conference held last week says it all really: what goes up invariably comes down as markets respond to the making of super profits. Red grape prices (in this year’s dollars) jumped from just over $500 a tonne back in 1992-93 to over $1400 in 1997-98 and then proceeded to fall all the way down again to an expected $413 this year. With whites the rise and fall has not been as dramatic but present nonetheless. From $500 to $900 a tonne and back to $500 again. Almost a text book example of rising prices causing increased production causing falling prices.
That will not be much help to those who bought or financed their wine business at the top of the price pyramid in the hope that super profits would last forever. As we regularly report on Glug, wine companies big and small are doing it tough and the bad news – although the totally expected news for believers in economic theory – is that things are not going to get any better in a hurry. Prices for white wine grapes are expected to keep falling right through to 2010-11 with reds recovering slightly after hitting a low of $399 per tonne next vintage.
The lag between planting and production means that despite a fall in annual plantings of 27% to around 5900 hectares between 2000-01 and 2004-05 grape production is still rising. The fall almost entirely reflected reduced plantings of red wine grapes. Plantings of shiraz fell proportionally less than those of other red wine grapes, and by 2004-05 shiraz accounted for 63 per cent of total red grape plantings. Plantings of chardonnay increased by over 330 per cent to 2477 hectares in 2004-05, accounting for 69 per cent of total white wine grape plantings.
In response to the same price pressures that have constrained wine grape plantings, there has been an increase in grubbings. Total grubbings in 2004-05 were 4270 hectares, up 18 per cent on the 2003-04 level. Relative to total planted area of the varieties, grubbings were particularly high for nonpremium white and red grapes and for cabernet sauvignon.
Taking into account both plantings and grubbings, there was a net increase in the area planted to wine grapes, with the largest increase in areas under shiraz and chardonnay. Over the outlook period, the bearing area of wine grapes is forecast to continue to expand slowly, to be 163 000 hectares in 2010-11, up by 4 per cent. The growth is expected to be dominated by an 18 per cent increase in the area of chardonnay to 33 000 hectares. Increases in the areas of sauvignon blanc and riesling account for much of the remainder. The bearing area of red wine grapes is forecast to remain around 98 000 hectares.
Total Australian production of wine grapes in 2010-11 is forecast to be around 1.95 million tonnes, 1.5 per cent above the estimated 2005-06 level. Production of premium white wine grapes is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 812 000 tonnes. An increase in production of chardonnay, to 500 000 tonnes, is expected to account for 84 per cent of the total increase in premium white wine grape production. Increased output of sauvignon blanc, to 49 000 tonnes, is forecast account for a further 15 per cent of the overall increase. Production of all non premium white wine grape varieties is forecast to decline, resulting in an 8 per cent increase in total white wine grape production to 944 000 tonnes in 2010-11.
Output of red wine grapes is forecast to fall by 4 per cent by 2010-11. Some cutback in production is forecast for all but shiraz and pinot noir. Output of shiraz is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 449 000 tonnes. Pinot noir production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 41 000 tonnes. On the other hand, production of cabernet sauvignon is expected to fall by 10 per cent to 273 000 tonnes, accounting for much of the reduction in total tonnage. Production of merlot is forecast to be down 4 per cent to 127 000 tonnes. Production of other premium red wine grapes is forecast to fall by 12 per cent or more and output of non premium red wine grapes is projected to fall by 17 per cent.
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