In these democratic days, wrote Sir Francis Galton F.R.S.in the journal Nature of March 1907, any investigation into the trustworthiness and peculiarities of popular judgments is of interest. So it was that the great pioneer of statistical correlation and regression set about outlining the findings of his investigations into a weight judging competition carried on at the annual show of the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition that had recently been held at Plymouth.

Sir Francis reported that, a fat ox having been selected, competitors bought stamped and numbered cards for 6d. each, on which to inscribe their respective names, addresses and estimates of what the ox would weigh after it had been slaughtered and "dressed". Those who guessed most successfully received prizes.

He continued:

"About 800 tickets were issued, which were kindly lent to me for examination after they had fulfilled their immediate purpose. These afforded excellent material. The judgments were unbiased by passion and uninfluenced by oratory and the like. The sixpenny fee deterred practical joking and the hope of a prize and the joy of competition prompted each competitor to do his best.

"The competitors included butchers and farmers, some of whom were highly expert in judging the weight of cattle; others were probably guided by such information and they might pick up, and by their own fancies. The average competitor was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes, and the variety among the voters to judge justly was probably much the same in either case."

Using the democratic principle of "one vote one value", Galton determined that middlemost estimate expressed the vox populi, every other estimate being condemned as too high or too low by a majority of voters. The middlemost estimate came in at 1207 pounds compared with an actual weight for the dressed ox of 1198 pounds - a difference of only 0.8 per cent which he described as "more creditable to the trustworthiness of a democratic judgment than might have been imagined."

Galton's experiment is the inspiration for the competition we are currently running on Glug that deals not with oxen but political animals. This is not a matter of picking the weight but the results that will appear in the next Newspoll on the forthcoming Australian election.

If a modest prize and the joy of competition, without the need to pay sixpence, appeals to you then please enter.